Job-finding and switching fell most for AI-exposed US workers
The US natural rate of unemployment is estimated to have risen 0.1-0.2 points since LLMs; small, unreviewed, worth tracking revisions.
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Since LLMs were introduced, the US natural rate of unemployment is estimated to have risen by about 0.1-0.2 percentage points, and workers with high AI exposure have seen larger declines in job-finding and job-switching rates than other groups, while within-job activity switching has increased noticeably — the estimate of Hie Joo Ahn and Nicholas A. Carollo, who themselves call the uncertainty considerable.
No such quantification existed before: the study combines CPS and JOLTS data with AI exposure measures from OpenAI and adoption measures from Lightcast to put a number on AI's labor-market impact.
The authors argue LLM-driven reallocation has operated mainly through within-firm task reorganization rather than mass layoffs. Note this is an unreviewed NBER conference paper, and the magnitude estimate is sensitive to model specification.