Investment Commentator Klement: Banque de France Study Shows Swedish Government Bonds Have Surpassed US Treasuries as Safe Havens
Joachim Klement cites a 2026 working paper from the Banque de France, which measures safe-haven scores through asset correlations during risk-averse periods. The study finds that Swedish government bonds have replaced US Treasuries at the top of the government bond safe-haven ranking, while the US dollar retains its status as the most prominent safe-haven asset across all categories. Klement points out that lower national debt levels correlate with higher safe-haven status for government bonds, with US Treasuries being a significant exception to this rule.
US Treasuries are losing their traditional status as a safe haven. A new study by the Banque de France, which measured asset correlations during periods of heightened risk aversion, found that Swedish government bonds have surpassed US Treasuries in safe-haven scores, with Norwegian government bonds following closely behind. Investment commentator Joachim Klement analyzed this working paper by Burban et al. in a November 11, 2026 Substack article, noting that the findings confirm his assessment made earlier this year: investors are losing trust in US Treasuries but retain confidence in the US dollar itself.
The study's methodology involves measuring correlations between various assets during periods of rising risk-averse sentiment to determine which assets truly function as safe havens. The scope covered government bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, currencies, gold, silver, crude oil, and Bitcoin. Klement specifically noted that Bitcoin, crude oil, and silver lack safe-haven characteristics; while gold possesses safe-haven attributes, its ranking falls significantly below most government bonds or the US dollar.
In the government bond ranking, Swedish government bonds take the top spot, followed by Norwegian government bonds in second place, with US Treasuries trailing behind. Klement summarized a general rule: the lower a country's debt level, the more its government bonds are viewed by investors as safe-haven assets. US Treasuries represent the most notable exception to this rule—despite the massive scale of US debt, its Treasuries have long enjoyed top-tier safe-haven status. At the bottom of the ranking are French, South Korean, and Belgian government bonds, whose safe-haven performance is comparable to that of Japanese corporate bonds.