Independent Tech Analyst Richard Windsor: Unitree's Wang Xingxing Lacks Evidence to Support Claim of Robotics Breakthrough by 2028

Wang Xingxing, founder of Unitree Robotics, stated in August that a breakthrough in humanoid robots would require 10 years or more, but has recently moved this timeline forward to 2028.

Windsor’s rebuttal is built on three specific observations. First, benchmark performance of frontier models: while the latest models from OpenAI and Anthropic have improved compared to their predecessors, the progress is not substantial, and their ability to recognize hallucinations has not fundamentally changed. Second, the reality of trade show demonstrations: Windsor points out that almost all robots shown at exhibitions are no different substantively from what he saw over a year ago—operators hidden behind demo tables use modified gamepads with combo-key commands (similar to fighting games) to control robots through handshakes, walking, and somersaults; these robots are far from autonomous and resemble remote-controlled toys. Third, truly semi-autonomous robots—those stacking shelves, making coffee, or handing out gifts—are slow, stiff, and constantly making mistakes.

From this, Windsor proposes a clear criterion for replacement: robots will rapidly replace humans only when they are simultaneously better, faster, and cheaper than humans on the same task. Currently, robots fail on all three metrics, meaning there is still a long way to go before large-scale substitution.

Notably, Windsor explicitly states he holds no positions in robotics-related equities. He highlights Agility Robotics as a company worth watching because it sells robots to enterprises today, representing the industry’s current realistic baseline. His conclusion is that while the robotics opportunity is vast, the timeline is too distant for near-term impacts on company valuations; other factors, rather than the sudden emergence of a new industry, will drive valuations in the short term.