IDC Forecasts: US FCC Robot Import Restrictions to Cut Humanoid Revenue by 58% vs Baseline in 2030
The US FCC restricts new foreign-made robot models from entering the market; IDC predicts this will significantly reduce US humanoid robot revenue and shift Chinese products to Europe.
The United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) added foreign-made advanced robotic devices to its Covered List on July 28, 2026, prohibiting the import, marketing, and sale of new foreign-made robots in the US. Although the policy aims to protect US AI infrastructure from national security threats and promote key industry reshoring, recent analysis by market research firm IDC indicates that these restrictions may significantly impact the US robotics market, with humanoid robots facing the most severe consequences.
IDC forecasts that by 2030, revenue in the US humanoid robot market will be 58% lower than a baseline scenario without restrictions; in comparison, the gap for home cleaning robots is 18%. IDC analysts Navkendar Singh and Ryan Reith noted that the policy acts as a "gate" rather than a wall, allowing already certified existing models to continue selling, with software and firmware updates permitted until at least January 1, 2029. Additionally, companies can apply for conditional approval waivers if they commit to moving production to the US, with an application deadline of January 1, 2028. Recently, the FCC granted Intel a one-year waiver to continue using Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs) in its semiconductor manufacturing facilities, citing a lack of suitable domestic alternatives.
Humanoid robots are disproportionately affected because their production is highly concentrated in China. IDC data shows that in the first half of 2026, Chinese companies accounted for approximately 95% of global humanoid robot shipments. US humanoid robot firms, including Figure and Apptronik, remain heavily dependent on China for motors, actuators, batteries, and rare earth materials. IDC estimates that these US companies will not achieve scaled mass production until after late 2028. If Chinese suppliers are completely excluded, the cost of building a humanoid robot would rise from $46,000 to $131,000, nearly tripling. As Singh and Reith wrote, "This regulation protects the logo on the finished robot but does nothing for the parts inside."