IDC: AI Memory Costs Cause Record 22% Smartphone Shipment Drop in Q3
IDC reports a record 22% year-over-year drop in global smartphone shipments for Q3 2026, attributing the decline to soaring memory prices driven by AI demand, with recovery not expected until 2028.
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Market research firm IDC states that the global smartphone market suffered its most severe quarterly decline on record in the third quarter of 2026, with shipments falling 22% year-over-year to 255.3 million units. This downturn is attributed to surging storage chip prices driven by artificial intelligence industry orders.
IDC notes that memory prices have risen approximately 350% over the past year, squeezing profit margins across the entire smartphone industry and forcing manufacturers to raise retail prices, reduce hardware specifications, or even discontinue entry-level models. Chinese brands such as Xiaomi and OPPO were hit hardest, while Apple and Samsung Electronics performed relatively better due to their richer portfolios of high-end devices.
Nabila Popal, IDC Research Director, stated that current indicators show the market has not yet bottomed out and the toughest phase lies ahead. The firm predicts that market growth will not recover until at least 2028. As manufacturers continue to guide consumers toward flagship and ultra-premium models, the long-term trend suggests a shrinking overall market size but increasing market share for vendors with extensive channels and high-end product combinations.