Gopinath: China's surplus is a symptom of weak demand, not strength
The former IMF number two frames China's surplus as internal imbalance rather than strength — an opinion signal, useful as a debate reference.
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Gita Gopinath says China's large surpluses reflect things going wrong inside China, not strength.
Gopinath was first deputy managing director and chief economist at the IMF and has returned to Harvard. Speaking on Tyler Cowen's Conversations with Tyler, with a transcript published, she said the imbalance itself is not what matters — jobs, consumption and purchasing power are.
She pointed to weak Chinese consumption, misallocated resources, a property market unfixed for five years, and anti-involution price coordination in sectors like EVs. She also noted that rising imbalances have historically triggered trade wars, as in the 1980s Plaza Accord era. This is her judgment, not new data or a policy change.