Fever-Tree, UK Premium Mixer Company, Accelerates U.S. Growth; TSOH Investment Research Believes It Is Still in the 'Early Innings'
TSOH Investment Research published an analysis of Fever-Tree (London Stock Exchange: FEVR): The company has shifted from reliance on UK tonics (accounting for over 50% of revenue in FY18) to expansion into non-tonic categories (now accounting for approximately 80%, with a scale of about £300 million). Under its partnership with Molson Coors, the U.S. business achieved low-double-digit constant currency growth in 1H FY26. Off-Trade sales accelerated from 6% in Q1 to 11% in Q2 and mid-teens in July and August. The author considers this the 'early innings' and expects U.S. growth to accelerate to high-double digits in 2H FY26.
The founding category of Fever-Tree is UK tonics. In fiscal year 2018, tonics accounted for more than 50% of the company's revenue, declining at a high-single digit annualized rate for seven consecutive years thereafter. By 2026, tonics had shrunk to approximately 20% of the revenue base. This might sound like a decline story, but the author of TSOH Investment Research argues that this is precisely the starting point of the investment thesis: the remaining ~80% represents a business of approximately £300 million that has grown at a mid-teens annualized clip over the past seven years.
What constitutes this 'remaining 80%'? Expansion into non-tonic categories—starting with ginger beers, extending to premium sodas, soft drinks, cocktail mixers, and non-alcoholic ready-to-drink (RTD) products. The author explicitly defines their investment as 'a bet on their long-term runway,' with the core variable being the U.S. market.
Fever-Tree’s U.S. business is managed in partnership with Molson Coors. In the first half of fiscal year 2026 (1H FY26), the U.S. region delivered low-double digit constant currency revenue growth, with the brand’s retail value share in ginger beers and tonics reaching record highs. More noteworthy is the acceleration trajectory: Off-Trade (non-on-premise) sales grew 6% in Q1 and 11% in Q2, with that growth rate climbing to mid-teens in July and August (the first two months of Q3 FY26).