Federation of Korean Industries: Chinese Competition May Erode $1.6 Billion in Korean EV Exports by 2030
A report by the Korea Economic Association indicates that if current trends continue, South Korea's electric vehicle export competitiveness will significantly decline against China, risking a loss of 2.2 trillion won in exports by 2030.
The Federation of Korean Industries (FKI), also known as the Korea Economic Association (KEA), released an analysis titled 'Status and Implications of Korea's Electric Vehicle Exports and Competitiveness' on November 4, 2026. The report states that while the global electric vehicle market is expanding rapidly, South Korea's EV export competitiveness has weakened significantly over the past two years. If the expansion of Chinese EV market share continues, approximately 2.2 trillion won (about $1.61 billion) of South Korea's EV export value could be eroded by competition by 2030, representing 14.7% of last year's total EV exports.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the share of electric vehicles in global new car sales rose from 2.6% in 2019 to 25.0% last year, with projections reaching 29% this year. However, the position of domestic Korean EVs has narrowed both at home and abroad. In the domestic battery electric vehicle (BEV) market, the share of Korean brands fell from 73.7% in 2019 to 57.0% last year, a drop of 16.7 percentage points. In the global EV export market, South Korea's share declined from 8.9% to 4.6%, particularly falling for two consecutive years after peaking at 8.1% in 2023.
The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index for Korean EVs, calculated by KEA based on UN Comtrade data, dropped nearly by half from 2.92 in 2023 to 1.48 last year. An RCA above 1 indicates an export comparative advantage. Meanwhile, China's RCA index rose from just 0.10 in 2017 to 1.49 last year, surpassing 1 in 2022 and now matching South Korea. The Trade Specialization Index (TSI) shows similar divergent trends: China shifted from import specialization (-0.79 in 2017) to export specialization (0.97 last year), while South Korea's TSI fell from 0.70 in 2023 to 0.50.