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NewsTopic · AI债券收益率竞争1 min read·2026-10-16

Citi Macro Strategist Dirk Willer on Trading the AI Bubble: The Meb Faber Show Episode #654

Dirk Willer, Head of Global Macro, Asset Allocation and Emerging Market Strategy at Citi, appeared on Episode #654 of The Meb Faber Show. The episode discusses his view that being in an AI bubble is a reason to buy rather than sell, along with topics like bond selloffs, Fed cycles, Brazil markets, and hedging strategies.

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2026-10-19 23:30 GMT+8

Dirk Willer, Head of Global Macro, Asset Allocation and Emerging Market Strategy at Citi, is the featured guest on Episode #654 of The Meb Faber Show, published on October 16, 2026. According to the publisher's show notes, Willer explains why he believes we are currently in an AI bubble and argues that this is a reason to buy, not sell.

The episode covers several specific macro and market subjects, including the relationship between bond selloffs and growth, comparisons between the Warsh Fed and the Greenspan era, Brazil as one of his favorite markets, and his recommended hedges for when the bubble bursts. Chapter timestamps indicate discussions on trading bubbles and Fed liquidity, the Fed cycle and bond timing, Treasury supply, dollar strength, Brazil/Asia/China markets, gold/copper signals, and bubble indicators/hedging.

Sources

  • 原始出处traffic.megaphone.fm↗
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AI债券收益率竞争

2026年,人工智能基础设施建设的巨额资本支出正通过债券市场融资,彻底重塑全球信贷格局并推高主权与 corporate 债券收益率。截至8月,AI相关债务发行量已接近5000亿美元,其中超大规模云服务商占比约40%。这一趋势导致科技巨头在拥…

6 steps4 piecesUpdated 2026-10-18 10:44

How it got here

  1. 2026-06-29高盛分析师Max Lukianchikov指出,四大科技巨头年内已发行超过1700亿美元公司债,远超去年全年总和,但信用利差仍处历史低位,因投资者更关注绝对收益率而非信用风险。
  2. 2026-07-28摩根大通资产管理发布报告称,美国科技板块投资级债券净发行量已达1920亿美元,占所有IG净发行的27%,预计2030年累计可达2.1万亿美元以支持5.5万亿AI资本支出。
  3. 2026-08-05高盛研究部Amanda Lynam确认,2026年至今AI相关债务发行总额估计接近5000亿美元,强调这是多年期、主题集中的供应浪潮,需多市场协同消化。

What is still unsettled

  • AI相关资本支出的回报率能否支撑当前的低信用利差,还是会在盈利不及预期时引发剧烈重定价?
  • 随着被动指数中AI发行人权重增加,单一负面冲击是否会通过再平衡机制放大市场波动?
  • 美联储新主席的沟通框架变化如何影响市场对中性利率的预期,进而改变AI借贷成本的长期路径?

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  • Goldman Sachs Co-Head of Credit Trading Alex Finston Discusses Rising Rates and AI Issuance Impact on Credit Markets2026-10-16
  • Goldman Sachs Exchanges: George Cole Analyzes Surge in Global Bond Yields2026-10-14
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