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NewsTopic · 中国AI芯片供应链2 min read·2026-10-16

China's AI Chip Supply Chain Firms Forecast Q3 Earnings Surge: Yuanjie Sees Up to 660% Profit Growth, MetaX Turns Profitable

Multiple Chinese chip and material companies issued Q3 earnings previews showing significant profit conversion from AI demand and domestic substitution, though analysts warn of potential memory cycle cooling.

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2026-10-16 17:30 GMT+8

As the artificial intelligence infrastructure boom intersects with China's semiconductor self-sufficiency push, several Shanghai and Shenzhen-listed chip supply chain companies released unaudited third-quarter earnings previews around October 16, indicating dramatic profit growth. Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology, a maker of laser chips for optical communications, expects its quarterly net profit to reach between 403 million and 453 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 579% to 660%. The company cited strong data center demand driving shipments and helping maintain high margins.

Graphics processing unit (GPU) designer MetaX also turned profitable in the first nine months, estimating a net profit of 587 million to 717 million yuan, primarily due to increasing orders. This performance holds even when excluding non-recurring gains. Hygon Information, which provides processors for both general computing and AI workloads, projected revenue growth of 50% to 64% for the first three quarters, attributing this to rising demand for high-end chips as customers increasingly choose domestic alternatives over foreign suppliers.

However, not all growth is purely operational. Storage giant Longsys Electronics forecast a nine-month net profit of 14 billion to 14.9 billion yuan, roughly 20 times the previous year's figure. Yet, Longsys noted that price increases for DRAM and NAND flash storage slowed in the third quarter, meaning the price boost contributed less to profits than before. A Morgan Stanley report on Sunday predicted that while memory prices could remain firm through 2027, the boom might cool if supply catches up or customer purchases slow down, even without weaker AI demand.

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Additionally, silicon wafer supplier Xian Eswin Material Technology reported full-capacity production lines and a 43% sales volume increase, but its net profit included gains from investments in initial public offerings by its customers; excluding these non-recurring items, the company still expects a loss. This highlights the need for investors to distinguish between core business profitability and investment income when evaluating 'AI concept' stocks. Research firm TrendForce predicts that Chinese-designed chips will account for nearly 90% of the country's high-end AI processor market this year, signaling that domestic substitution has moved from policy rhetoric to tangible financial realization.

Sources

  • 报道出处scmp.com↗
Topic

中国AI芯片供应链

中国AI芯片供应链正经历从“国产替代预期”向“实际利润兑现”的关键转折,但上游产能与存储价格波动构成新约束。

3 steps1 piecesUpdated 2026-10-16 21:39

How it got here

  1. 2026-07-05深圳江波龙电子等存储企业发布上半年业绩预告,净利润同比激增数百倍,主要受AI驱动的数据存储需求及晶圆供应紧张推动。
  2. 2026-10-13IDC报告指出,受美国出口管制影响,英伟达在中国数据中心AI芯片市场份额降至34%,华为出货量增至57.2万片,占据28%份额。
  3. 2026-10-16源杰科技预计Q3净利同比增长579%-660%,沐曦股份实现扭亏为盈,显示国产替代趋势已从概念进入财报验证期。

What is still unsettled

  • 随着全球存储厂商扩产,DRAM和NAND价格是否在2027年前出现实质性回调?
  • 中国在EUV光刻机上的原型进展能否在未来两年内转化为可量产的先进制程能力?
  • 国内AI加速器的软件生态兼容性是否足以支撑大规模训练任务,还是仅局限于推理场景?
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