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NewsMaterial3 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

Anthropic Files for Nasdaq IPO: $80.7 Billion Loss in First Half of 2026, Lease Liabilities Surge Sixfold to $321 Billion

Financial columnist Eddy Elfenbein analyzes Anthropic's S-1 filing, pointing out that lease liabilities under its 'asset-light' model surged from $50.2 billion to $321 billion, and predicts the company will use its high stock price as 'cheap currency' to acquire competitors.

2026-10-28 04:49 GMT+8

Anthropic filed an initial public offering (IPO) application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June and officially announced its plan to go public on October 26, intending to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "ANT".

The trajectory of losses is the first set of numbers to attract attention: The company reported a full-year loss of $8.3 billion in 2024, a full-year loss of $41.9 billion in 2025, and a loss of $80.7 billion already in the first half of 2026. As of June 30, Anthropic held $112.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents. With 5,300 employees, this translates to revenue per employee of $6.6 million. International revenue accounted for 27.8% of total revenue, and no single customer contributed more than 10% of revenue—Elfenbein contrasts this with Nvidia, which has five clients each accounting for more than 10% of its revenue.

The most striking structural finding lies in the balance sheet. Anthropic is described as a typical 'asset-light' company, owning just over $1 billion in property and equipment (of which $432 million is related to finance leases). However, its future undiscounted lease obligations jumped from $50.2 billion at the end of 2025 to $321 billion. Elfenbein argues this reveals the true cost commitments behind the 'asset-light' label: the company does not own data centers but has locked into unprecedented long-term lease agreements.

Regarding corporate governance, Founder LLC holds 50.1% of the shares. This LLC has only seven members: founders Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, and five executives. The prospectus names only two competitors—OpenAI and Google—and lists 90 pages of risk factors, including legislative restrictions on data center construction in various parts of the United States and supply chain risks due to the high concentration of chip manufacturing at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).

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Elfenbein's core judgment is that Anthropic will use its high post-IPO stock price as 'cheap currency' to acquire competitors. He wrote, 'The benefit of an elevated share price is that it can be used as cheap currency to buy out your rivals.' He expects the company to use the raised funds to aggressively acquire competitors and explicitly stated that he would not participate in this IPO investment but would watch closely. This acquisition thesis is Elfenbein's personal prediction; the prospectus only states that funds will be used for 'general corporate purposes' and 'may be used to acquire other companies'.

Evidence boundaries to retain: All financial figures above are derived from Elfenbein's retelling of the S-1 document; this draft has not independently verified the original documents. The 'consensus valuation of $1.5 to $2 trillion' is Elfenbein's generalized description of market expectations, not a confirmed offering price. Details such as SpaceX charging Anthropic approximately $3.1 billion per month for GPU computing power, and Amazon having invested $13 billion since 2023 with potential additional investments of $20 billion, similarly rely on Elfenbein's unilateral retelling.

Sources

  • cws.substack.com↗
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