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NewsMaterial3 min readDisconfirmAI Editorial

AI Research Institute Epoch AI Estimates: Huawei’s Largest AI Data Center Has Only 7% of the Compute Power of SpaceX’s Colossus 2

Epoch AI researchers Ben Cottier and Lynette Bye estimated the IT power of Huawei’s Horinger data center at 286 megawatts by analyzing cooling equipment in satellite imagery, and calculated its operational compute capacity at approximately 81,000 H100 equivalents based on chip sales data—less than one-tenth of that of SpaceX’s Colossus 2. US export controls have reduced China’s AI compute per watt to just 40% of the US level; even if Horinger expands by 70% before 2028, this gap will not narrow.

2026-11-13 00:03 GMT+8

China possesses abundant electricity, and Huawei is constructing AI data centers on a massive scale. However, an estimate released on November 12, 2026, by Epoch AI researchers Ben Cottier and Lynette Bye indicates that electricity is not the bottleneck—chips are. Using commercial high-resolution satellite imagery and modeling cooling equipment, they calculated the actual compute capacity of Huawei’s flagship AI data center in Horinger, Inner Mongolia, finding it to be approximately 81,000 H100 equivalents, merely 7% of the capacity of SpaceX’s Colossus 2 data center in Tennessee.

The methodology behind this estimate is noteworthy. The researchers did not rely on any compute figures published by Huawei. Instead, they started with satellite imagery: observing four buildings in the West and South zones equipped with dense cooling facilities (cooling towers and air-cooled chillers), they estimated the IT power capacity of these buildings at 286 megawatts. Buildings in the North zone had noticeably sparse cooling equipment and were excluded from the AI compute estimate. They then combined this with the sales timeline for Huawei Ascend chips, assuming a four-month lag from sale to deployment, to calculate that approximately 105,000 Ascend 910C chips and 8,000 910B chips were currently operational.

The key performance conversion comes from public disclosures: the Ascend 910C performs at approximately 0.76 H100 equivalents, while Nvidia’s B200 and B300 chips perform at about 2.5 H100 equivalents. This means that for every watt of power, US data centers can produce 2.5 times more AI compute than Chinese ones. This is the direct consequence of US export controls—not restricting China’s access to electricity, but restricting its access to high-performance chips.

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Comparing Horinger with Colossus 2 makes the gap even more intuitive. Colossus 2 has approximately 14 times the compute capacity of Horinger. The researchers also made forward-looking projections: Horinger has at least three new buildings planned, one of which is already under construction and expected to come online by February 2028. By then, Horinger’s total compute could grow by over 70%, reaching approximately 141,000 H100 equivalents. However, Colossus 2 is expected to reach at least 1.8 million H100 equivalents during the same period, meaning Horinger’s share will not improve and may even shrink.

This estimate has specific implications for understanding China’s AI capabilities. The researchers note that data center compute is typically divided into multiple densely interconnected clusters, and total capacity cannot necessarily be merged to train a single model; however, large R&D experiments can still run even if the compute at Huawei Horinger is split into many clusters. Just 10% of Horinger’s current estimated compute (approximately 8,100 H100 equivalents) is sufficient to train a DeepSeek-V4-Pro-scale model within a month; if all compute were merged for a single training run, a GPT-6 Astra-scale model would take one year.

Of course, this estimate has clear boundaries. The 90% confidence interval ranges from 36,000 to 141,000 H100 equivalents, a span of nearly four times, reflecting uncertainties in assumptions such as chip model mix, deployment timing, and building usage. Colossus 2’s capacity itself is not an officially confirmed figure. The researchers also acknowledge that the overall frontier of Chinese AI data centers may not fall further behind—Huawei’s Wuhu campus is growing slightly faster than Horinger and is projected to reach 151,000 H100 equivalents by December 2027. But regarding single-facility comparisons, the Horinger case clearly demonstrates that, given sustained export controls, China’s AI compute constraints are unlikely to ease within the next two years.

Sources

  • epochai.substack.com↗
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