TrendForce: AI drives fiber shortage, forecasts 2026 gap of 180M core-km and price hikes over 2.8x

According to the latest telecommunications industry research released by market research firm TrendForce on October 19, 2026, global demand for fiber optics has surged due to the construction of AI data centers, inter-data center connections, and high-capacity backbone networks. The firm estimates that the global supply-demand gap for fiber optics will reach 180 million core-kilometers in 2026, with tight supply driving annual increases of 2.8 to over 5 times in spot prices for finished fiber products.

From the supply side, the global fiber optic capacity utilization rate rose to 92% in 2026, while inventory levels dropped from four months in 2024 to just one month. Orders at some major manufacturers are already booked through the first quarter of 2027. TrendForce notes that expanding preform production involves introducing deposition equipment and process setup, with a build period of approximately 18 to 24 months. Even if manufacturers plan expansions now, new capacity will take time to come online, making it difficult to effectively increase short-term supply.

On the demand side, global fiber optic demand is estimated at 577 million core-kilometers in 2026, with growth primarily driven by data center construction, which accounts for about 18% to 20% of demand. This share is projected to rise to 30% to 35% in 2027. In addition to large cloud service providers continuing to expand AI data centers, chipmakers and telecom operators are also investing in related infrastructure, further boosting demand for fiber optics used in data center interconnects and high-capacity backbone networks.

The supply shortage has led to rising spot prices for finished fiber products. For example, bend-insensitive fiber used for wiring within data centers is expected to see an average price increase of more than five times in 2026 compared to 2025. AI backbone fiber used for data center interconnects and high-capacity backbone networks has seen annual price increases of about 2.8 times, while mainstream fiber for telecom services has risen by approximately 3.7 times.