US VC Hits Record Amid Exit Crunch

US venture capital deal value reached a record $515.8 billion in the first nine months of 2026, surpassing the previous annual peak by approximately 44%. This surge was primarily driven by massive funding rounds from OpenAI and Anthropic; excluding these, overall trends have remained stable since late 2024.

Third-quarter deal value fell about 40% to $98.4 billion, largely due to a decline in growth-stage rounds. While startups continued to close deals at a near-record pace (estimated 5,012 transactions), AI's share of annual deal value dropped to 65.9% in Q3 from higher levels earlier in the year.

The exit environment faces significant challenges. SpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor accounted for 53.1% of third-quarter exit value. Excluding this transaction, quarterly exits totaled only $53 billion, the lowest since late 2024. The IPO pipeline remains stalled, with fewer new listings in each of the past three years than in 2026 through September, and no major AI companies going public.

On the fundraising side, US venture firms raised $108.5 billion, exceeding 2025's full-year total by nearly 39%. However, capital is highly concentrated: 78% went to megafunds, while emerging managers raised only $4.9 billion. This disparity intensifies pressure on smaller firms, potentially impacting the diversity of the future innovation ecosystem.