Memory price hikes squeeze entry phones, sub-$200 shipments may fall 40%

Research firm Counterpoint forecasts that annual global shipments of smartphones priced under $200 will fall by more than 230 million units between 2025 and 2030, a drop of about 40%.

The report attributes the shift to rising memory and chipset prices, a higher minimum specification floor, and vendors pulling back from non-strategic markets. Counterpoint notes the lost volume will not simply migrate to higher price tiers: some consumers will delay upgrades, and some demand will disappear entirely.

The overall market is expected to recover to roughly 1.2 billion units by 2030, with premium phones growing about 7% a year. In low- and middle-income countries, phone price is a main barrier to internet adoption, so the entry-tier shrinkage will slow the move from feature phones to smartphones.