금·은 일일 보고서

Friday's rebound held key support, but neither metal has reclaimed its 50-day average. Lower real yields help at the margin; dollar strength remains a constraint. GLD holdings fell in the latest verified observation, while SLV holdings rose over two days. Cheap/Fair/Hot means technical position versus SMA200, not intrinsic value.

1. Prices and ETF mapping

Spot cross-check differences are under 0.2%. Observed mapping factors: GLD ≈ gold ×0.09171; SLV ≈ silver ×0.90247. These are scenario estimates with timing, fees and tracking limits, not arbitrage conversions.

2. Regime and technical bands

Gold and GLD SMA200 fell only about 0.01% and 0.07% over 20 days. Strict classification produces Bear, but these near-flat slopes are close to the Transition boundary and do not imply a strongly established downtrend.

3. Price stage

Gold futures GC=F: $4,216.30; SMA50 $4,376.97; SMA200 $4,548.02; 52-week range position 18.7%, peak drawdown 24.5%; RSI14 33.0; five-day +1.3%, 20-day -4.4%. Supports: $4,130, $4,091, $4,000. Resistance: $4,208–4,216, $4,377, $4,440. Recovery above $4,377 would provide stronger trend evidence.

Silver futures SI=F: $60.67; SMA50 $64.11; SMA200 $72.49; range position 19.6%, drawdown 50.0%; RSI14 31.3; five-day +1.2%, 20-day -6.0%. Supports: $59.0 and $58.9; resistance $61.30, $64.11, $65.24. Below $64–65 the move remains a weak-trend rebound. Futures are explicitly separate from spot prices.

4. Gold/silver ratio

Spot ratio is approximately 69.1. Prior five-year reference distribution: 10th percentile 66.2, median 83.9, 90th percentile 90.8. Silver is technically weak versus its own history but remains relatively expensive versus gold. A ratio rising toward 75–80 would improve its relative-value case. Technical cheapness and relative cheapness are distinct.

5. Macro

FRED real 10Y yield: 2.87% on October 8, previously 2.92%; nominal yield: 5.22%, previously 5.28%. October 9 market 10Y reference: 5.244%. DXY: 102.21; SMA50 100.11, SMA200 99.37. NFCI: -0.494 for October 2, still loose but marginally tighter. The environment remains restrictive, improving at the margin. Each series retains its observation date.

6. ETF holdings

GLD: 1,061.11 tonnes on October 7 → 1,055.41 on October 8, down 5.70 tonnes. October 9 official data was unavailable. SLV: 15,311.57 tonnes on October 7 → 15,363.53 on October 9, up 51.96 tonnes across two days; shares rose by 1.85M to 546.95M. Holdings observations do not equal exact cash subscription flows.

7. Slow supply and demand

Earlier WGC figures put Q2 2026 central-bank buying at about 289 tonnes and the first half at about 345 tonnes. The World Silver Survey estimates 2026 industrial demand of 639.6M ounces and a 46.3M-ounce deficit. Solar demand remains relevant, but thrifting, copper substitution and lower silver intensity constrain linear extrapolation. These slow variables do not prove one uniquely measurable intrinsic value.

8. Spot-to-ETF scenario estimates

9. Three horizons

• Tactical, weeks: avoid interpreting one strong day as trend reversal; monitor gold's $4,208–4,216 and silver's $61.30 resistance.
• Cyclic, months: gold above $4,377 and silver above $64.11–65.24 would support a shift from repair to an uptrend.
• Strategic, a year or longer: central-bank demand supports gold's diversification thesis; silver adds industrial sensitivity, volatility and substitution risk.

10. Conditional levels and data health

Gold holding $4,130–4,093 is a support condition; daily close above $4,377 is trend confirmation. GLD support $374–379, confirmation above $397. Silver holding $59 and breaking $61.30 improves tactical evidence; $64.11 is the next confirmation. SLV support $52.84–53.45, medium-term repair above $57.94. Real yields above 3% with DXY above 102.54 would tighten the risk conditions.

Kitco and Trading Economics cross-check spot; Yahoo daily bars end October 9; FRED yields end October 8 and NFCI October 2. GLD October 9 holdings remain HOLDINGS_UNAVAILABLE. This page organizes the existing October 10 report rather than claiming a fresh live calculation.

Sources: Kitco gold ↗, Kitco silver ↗, Trading Economics ↗, FRED ↗, SPDR GLD ↗, iShares SLV ↗, WGC ↗, Silver Institute ↗.