Informe diario de BTC

Report observations were collected around 10:03 Beijing time. Completed crypto bars end on 2026-10-09 UTC. This publication organizes the existing full report; it is not a new live-price calculation.

1. Data health

Binance supplied spot prices, daily bars and derivatives. CoinGecko supplied a USD price cross-check. CoinMetrics MVRV observations end at 2026-10-09 00:00 UTC and are over 24 hours old: STALE_CRITICAL. MVRV-Z is a transparent btc-data reconstruction dated October 8, labeled PROXY / STALE_CRITICAL, with zero effective score. Farside flows end October 9. FRED series retain their individual daily, weekly or monthly dates. Mining cost is a scenario range. FMP supplied the MSTR close, but not the current assumed-diluted share denominator.

The original BTC report's DXY value of 121.38 conflicts with the gold report's roughly 102 reading. It is withheld as DATA_CONFLICT. The macro score is neutralized, moving the provisional total from approximately -0.13 to -0.10. No refreshed DXY claim is made.

2. Regime and price

TRANSITION for five reported days; Sideways-Transition. Price is above the 200-day average while its slope is negative. The cycle is about 29.7 months after the April 20, 2024 halving, in the framework's 24–36-month late-cycle window.

The last five closes were 85,766 → 85,550 → 83,322 → 81,754 → 82,636. BULL requires price above SMA200 and slope above +5%; BEAR requires price below SMA200 and slope below -5%. Neither is met.

3. Multiple valuation anchors

Positive scores mean cheaper; missing or stale critical inputs do not gain weight through renormalization.

MVRV = market cap / realized cap. NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV. MVRV-Z uses the difference between market and realized caps divided by expanding historical market-cap standard deviation. The MVRV ratio does not replace MVRV-Z.

Mining electricity cost scenarios: 18 J/TH at $0.05/kWh ≈ $43,600/BTC; at $0.08 ≈ $69,800. For 25 J/TH, the corresponding estimates are $60,600 and $96,900. A listed-miner weighted pretax cash-cost reference is about $75,500. These are dated assumptions, not one global production cost.

Hash ribbon: expansion for 44 days, 30-day hash rate 959.5 EH/s versus 60-day 934.2, last recovery August 26. Thirty-day active addresses: 640,384, down 11.8% YoY; funded addresses up 5.2%. Expansion and activity disagree, so the combined score is neutral.

Derivatives: funding about 0.0052% per eight hours, recent annualized reference 5.9%, percentile about 79%; BTCUSDT open interest approximately $7.64B; account long/short ratio 1.48 versus 1.87 previously; quarterly annualized basis about 5.5%; put/call OI about 0.59. These are mixed signals.

US spot BTC ETF flows: October 7 -$484.9M; October 8 -$244.1M; October 9 +$21.1M; three-day total -$707.9M. A small positive day does not erase the preceding withdrawals.

Macro observations: real 10Y yield 2.87% and nominal 5.22% on October 8; Fed assets $6.748T and TGA $0.880T on October 7; ON RRP $0.3B on October 9; US M2 $23.343T for August 1. Net liquidity using available observations is about $5.867T, down roughly 1.7% over 90 days. Global M2 is unavailable. DXY is withheld due to the conflict noted above.

4. Total and regime modifier

Provisional effective score: approximately -0.10, in the -0.3 to +0.3 hold/watch band. TRANSITION and incomplete anchors limit conviction. A below-average MVRV ratio alone does not validate additional exposure.

5. Three independent horizons

• Tactical, 1–4 weeks: defensive-neutral; RSI and crowding improved, but ETF withdrawals persist and $86,600 has not been reclaimed.
• Cyclic, 1–6 months: cautious; negative SMA slope, late halving-cycle timing and restrictive real yields remain adverse evidence.
• Strategic, 6–24 months: the reported on-chain ratios are not in historical bubble territory, but trend and cycle do not support one large allocation. The $70K–76K region requires fresh valuation and stabilization evidence.

6. Conditional trigger levels

Trend confirmation: five closes above $86,600, with SMA slope improving to above -5%; rapid funding/OI overheating would limit conviction. Value observation: $76,264, conditional on fresh MVRV-Z and stabilization. Below $76,264 with MVRV still above 1.5 would qualify as Hot-Transition. BEAR confirmation: five closes below the dynamic SMA200, currently about $71,893, with slope below -5%. Mayer ≥1.50 maps to approximately $107,840 and requires other overheating evidence. These are framework conditions, not forecasts or automated trades.

7. ETH comparison

Binance ETHUSDT was $2,496.25 and CoinGecko ETH/USD $2,494.09, a roughly 0.09% difference. CoinMetrics MVRV was 1.069, 35.2nd five-year percentile versus mean 1.161, at October 9 00:00 UTC: stale critical. It has zero BTC portfolio weight and does not independently establish an ETH entry.

8. MSTR capital structure and scenarios

MSTR close: $154.34. Strategy holdings disclosure through October 4: 848,000 BTC, aggregate cost about $63.97B, average $75,441/BTC, and about $5.7B in dollar assets. Assumed-diluted shares: approximately 451.6M, a filing-aware fallback denominator. BTC per diluted share: 0.001878, about 187,800 sats. Debt: about $6.75B; preferred liquidation value: about $14.35B. The report estimates gross BTC NAV/share $155.29 and net common-equity NAV/share $121.19.

Diluted market cap / gross BTC NAV ≈ 0.99×; enterprise value / BTC NAV ≈ 1.20×; diluted market cap / net common-equity NAV ≈ 1.27×. The denominator and senior claims explain why these ratios differ.

Net common NAV/share = (848,000 × BTC price + $5.7B − $6.75B − $14.35B) / 451.6M.

Scenarios hold assets, senior claims and diluted shares fixed; they exclude software value, taxes and future issuance. They are estimates, not target prices or an arbitrage guarantee.

9. Conclusion and sources

BTC remains hold/watch in the framework. MSTR is approximately 1.27× estimated net common-equity NAV, rather than an unconditional discount to Bitcoin. Dilution, preferred claims and mNAV compression matter.

Sources: Farside ↗, FRED ↗, Strategy disclosures ↗, CoinMetrics ↗, FMP ↗. Critical stale and missing fields remain explicit.