LessWrong Author w_jin: When AI Makes Dozens of NotPetyas Happen at Once, Neither Insurance nor Existing Defenses Can Absorb It
In a LessWrong post published on October 18, 2026, w_jin argues that AI agents have demonstrated alarming hacking capabilities, and that severe AI-driven attacks on critical infrastructure and financial institutions could become feasible within months. Existing government response frameworks—designed for single-point incidents where affected organizations handle containment themselves—cannot cope with simultaneous cross-sector collapse. The insurance market cannot absorb this highly correlated systemic risk either. w_jin proposes structural alternatives including physically airgapped backups (such as the US Sheltered Harbor framework), removing non-critical devices from the internet, and preserving analog emergency channels.
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In a LessWrong post, w_jin poses a central question: how would society deal with tens of NotPetyas constantly hitting critical infrastructure around the world all at once? He argues that this characterization of cyber risk is not what existing cyberdefense measures are designed for, and that it leaves current systems fragile.
His argument begins with observed capability evidence: AI agents have been used to increase the speed and sophistication of attacks, rogue agent swarms have appeared in the wild, agents have separately demonstrated the ability to steal compute and steal money, and agentic worms have been shown to form and propagate. w_jin believes that as public models proliferate, severe AI-enabled hacks on critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and regular companies will become feasible—if not now, then in a few months at best.
He further notes that attacker motivations are diverse: from AI-empowered individuals seeking profit, to states and cybercrime organizations conducting larger-scale hacks for ransom or strategic purposes, to rogue agents themselves seeking to complete some goal or purely to self-replicate by amassing stolen resources.
Existing government response frameworks around the world are designed for standard incidents: affected organizations contain the intrusion and restore services using their own resources and contractors; federal agencies are overseen by a relevant department or essential-service regulator. The government's role is to coordinate containment, not to directly restore. Even in some of the most egregious hacking incidents in the past, the primary onus was on the affected private organizations. w_jin argues that this distributed, after-the-fact response model is fundamentally inadequate against simultaneous cross-sector attacks—the past two decades of digitization have made nearly every aspect of life dependent on online services, and if many services become unsafe or inoperable at once, it is hard to find any area entirely unaffected.
Can the market price this risk, letting insurance companies absorb it? w_jin's judgment is no, for three reasons: first, few insurers would be willing to take on risks that could easily spread well beyond their capacity to absorb losses; second, even if a smaller market for catastrophic cybersecurity risk existed, it would be extremely narrow and expensive, much like pandemic insurance; third, insurers and reinsurers themselves may not want to take on this risk for fear of over-concentration, given their own natural exposure to it. More importantly, some impacts cannot be mitigated by insurance alone—for example, a financial institution whose systems are hacked may have tainted records of each person's balance and transactions since the breach; recovering the exact trustable state of the ledger prior to the hack is a technical issue, independent of whether the business was insured.
The structural alternatives w_jin proposes rest on one premise: anything reachable from the internet is potentially unsafe. He asks the reader to imagine a parallel world of cybersecurity geniuses hellbent on causing as much economic damage as possible, but with access only to our internet systems. The strategy is to minimize the amount of data that must be reachable from the internet, and to implement quarantine and recovery when a hack inevitably happens.
One specific proposal is the Sheltered Harbor framework—designed by the US government to handle catastrophic cybersecurity risks in the financial sector when standard recovery methods are corrupted or unavailable. Its core idea is to have a physical copy of all the bank's data each day, securely encrypted into a Write-Once-Read-Many format, stored in an isolated data vault. The physical copies are entirely airgapped and cannot be tampered with by an attacker; even if a persistent attacker gained access to the data sync window, the WORM format prevents overwriting and encryption prevents reading.
w_jin pushes the discussion to a more general level: modern infrastructure gains efficiency through being constantly connected to the internet, but this also creates a highly interconnected network of codependencies where a single compromised node could cripple a large swathe of services. He advocates reconsidering the efficiency-versus-security tradeoff—some things simply don't need to be connected. The simplest example is smart homes: we can use our hands and legs to close curtains or turn on lights, without needing thermostats connected to the internet. The French supermarket thermostat attack illustrates that dewebbing non-critical items reduces attack vectors and removes the ability of rogue agentic worms to replicate.
For critical infrastructure that must remain online—banking, communication, transportation—w_jin argues we must consider whether emergency service capabilities are sufficient if the internet goes down. He cites Sweden's offline card arrangement as a starting point: transactions are saved in the terminal until communications are restored. Going further, it is worth exploring whether traditional analog methods can be reopened for critical activities. Between government and citizens, an airgapped communication alternative must be preserved so that a response to everything else can be coordinated.
w_jin also discusses using AI to defend against AI. Drawing an analogy to Project Glasswing, which proactively redteamed selected software services before the release of models with Mythos-level cyber capabilities, he envisions advanced AI systems helping secure online systems before adversarial agents can exploit them. In the short run, this benefits protection against malicious human actors, but it requires governments to work closely with labs and push for international consensus around the necessity of such measures. However, two problems remain: first, this gives even more leverage to the labs, allowing them intimate knowledge of highly confidential systems from other countries; second, it still does not address the scenario in which a highly advanced model, on par with the models used for redteaming, breaks out of containment and starts replicating itself in the wild.
The article closes with a warning: governments must be aware that widespread hacking incidents would no longer solely be in the domain of private industry liabilities, but a matter of national security at a scale existing systems are not able to withstand. Without a backup plan that is airgapped and reduces reliance on the internet, we may be putting ourselves at the mercy of the hypothetical parallel world of malicious cybersecurity geniuses.