As humanoid robot technology advances rapidly, a large number of startups have emerged in the market. However, Andrew Kang, CEO of RoboStrategy, a closed-end investment fund focused on robotics, presents a counter-intuitive view: this booming industry will not produce dozens of winners, but only a few companies will achieve overwhelming success. Kang argues that the key factor determining success is not the amount of capital, but the extreme scarcity of professional knowledge and industry talent.
According to statistics, there are currently 112 companies in the US engaged in humanoid robot manufacturing, component supply, software, and artificial intelligence, while China has over a hundred similar companies. Despite the numerous competitors, Kang truly favors only three: Tesla, Figure AI, and Apptronik. He points out that running a top-tier robotics company requires experts in machine learning, behavior control, computer vision, limb engineering, battery engineering, and product management simultaneously. However, globally, there may only be a few hundred people with these top-level professional capabilities. Gathering these scarce talents from different fields into one company while raising billions of dollars is extremely difficult.
This means that while software development can scale and capital can be sourced from multiple channels, the supply of physical AI experts cannot expand quickly. This talent bottleneck leads to natural industry consolidation. Kang cautiously states that companies not favored do not necessarily mean total failure, but only a few enterprises can overcome the barrier of talent aggregation to launch humanoid robots that can truly manipulate objects and understand the real world, developing into sufficiently large businesses.
Among the three companies Kang named, Tesla faces skepticism due to its Optimus robot's technical performance lagging behind Figure AI and Apptronik. Kang explains that Tesla's current lag is primarily because CEO Elon Musk is "too busy," with attention dispersed across multiple companies. He believes that once Musk focuses his attention on the robotics project, leveraging Tesla's accumulated advantages in motor, actuator, and battery technology from its automotive manufacturing business, along with ample capital and AI computing resources, it is only a matter of time for Optimus to catch up. Kang emphasizes that observing a company's past performance is the best indicator for predicting future results, and while Musk's companies often face delivery delays, they ultimately achieve technological breakthroughs others cannot.
Notably, RoboStrategy's actual portfolio does not include Tesla stock, setting Apptronik at 14.2% and Figure AI at 13.8%. The largest holding in the fund is actually Standard Bots, focused on industrial automation, accounting for 31.4%. This indicates that Kang's argument is more about long-term industry structure than short-term stock price predictions for a single public company. He predicts that millions of humanoid robots will emerge between 2028 and 2029, and by around 2030, they will be common in many households. However, this adoption process depends on infrastructure and manufacturing readiness, as producing physical robots is far more complex and time-consuming than generating AI chatbots.